Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Thoughts {08.25.15}

US and global markets are set to rip higher on the open after China cuts interest rates.   Read about it here.  Looks like everybody is jumping back in the pool today!

Markets in the short-term are oversold enough for us to rally now.  Our intermediate and longer term indicators are more neutral so we are less certain that all of this will be behind us in one day.  There's been substantial technical damage to stocks now of the kind that generally doesn't repair itself in a day or a week.  I'll try to show some examples of this in the next couple of days.  

There were crazy things that went on at the open yesterday that shows just how thinly traded markets are these days.  Prices of stocks and ETFs showed phantom opening prices that were off the charts horrific.  I'm going to spend some time today trying to figure out what went exactly happened.

I invested some of our sidelined cash yesterday as certain securities we follow presented to us what we thought were unique values.  No I'm not going to tell you what I bought except to say that for the most part these were securities that I thought made sense for our total return investment strategies and growth strategies.  Where we invested and the amounts put to work were according to our investment strategies and client risk/reward mandates.  I know we didn't hit the absolute bottom yesterday.  I know these will look smarter today at least at the open.  They may also not have hit rock bottom yet, particularly if we need to retest the lows at some point in the next few weeks.  Again, I don't care about one day returns.  We have a normal time horizon of 6-18 months and the weight of the evidence suggests there's value in these securities out in that time frame.  As usual the market will be the final judge of that.

Back tomorrow or later in the week depending on market actions with some charts.