The Jewish Holidays

From Bespoke Investment Group:

"There's a common market axiom on Wall Street that says that investors should sell on Rosh Hashanah and buy on Yom Kippur.  In other words, the ten day stretch between the Jewish New Year and the Day of Atonement is a period of time where bulls should go into hibernation.  According to Art Cashin, the reason for the historical weakness in equities during this period is that people of the Jewish religion "wished to be free (as much as possible) of the distraction of worldly goods during a period of reflection and self-appraisal."

Whatever the explanation for the market's weakness, as with all market axioms, there is some truth to the phrase.  The table below shows the historical performance of the S&P 500 from the close before Rosh Hashanah to the close on Yom Kippur going back to 2000.  As shown in the table, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 1.43% during the period with positive returns in only five out of thirteen years (38%).  

While the overall average change is -1.43%, we would note that the 18% decline in 2008 does skew the results a bit.  Looking at the median return instead shows that the S&P 500 declines a more modest 0.50% during the period, but it's still negative nonetheless.  For the sake of reference, this year, Rosh Hashanah begins at sundown {on} (9/4) and Yom Kippur ends on 9/14."

My comment:  As with all maxims coming from Wall Street there is some truth to what's described above.  Keep in mind though that the Jewish Holidays do not occur at the same time each year.  It is my understanding that the dates are based on when Passover occurs and thus can float around September and early October.  It is more likely that these holidays occur in a seasonal period where stocks are weak and are not the cause of any declines.  Stocks would likely be weak in the late summer period in any event.  In that case we'd probably look at something else like say the correlation of when the Cubs are mathematically eliminated from the pennant races or the Chicago Bear's record in September!  ;>}

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Link:  Bespoke: Sell Rosh Hashanah Buy Yom Kippur

L'Shanah Tovah!