We argued on
December 6th that the reason markets were moving higher is that investors sniffed out a deal on the "Fiscal Cliff" even though there were no outward signs on such a thing. Today's
Washington Post and
others are signaling movement on both sides in the past two days. Markets as represented by the futures are moving higher on this news. I think it's possible when we get a deal that markets may initially move lower before heading into rally mode again. A real deal removes one of the major overhangs buffeting investors over the past few years. It frees up business spending and gives people some certainty regarding their personal tax situations.
These signals out of Washington are outlining the basics. Somebody now only has to tuck in the fine print. There may be a bit more screaming and shouting. There is also a real possibility that the deal is too large to get done by December 31st. But the thing is done. Markets have been telling you that for the past few weeks.
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