A Few Final Thoughts

A few final thoughts regarding the election:

*All of the media attention in the past few weeks has focused on Ohio.  Virginia though has the potential to deal Romney a huge blow early in the evening if it casts its votes for the President.

*Hurricane Sandy probably will have little impact on the election except perhaps in Pennsylvania. Should the hurricane suppress  the vote in the Philadelphia region it could be an advantage in this state. Tellingly, some polls suggest that the President and Gov. Romney are now tied here.

*However, wins this thing some pollsters are going to have egg on their face.  Dick Morris  thinks that Gov. Romney will win 325 electoral votes and garner 55% of the popular vote.  Nate Silver over at blog fivethirtyeight gives the President a 91% probability of being reelected.  Both of these gentlemen cannot be right.  

*Barry Ritholtz over at the Big Picture has an excellent article regarding an an investors guide to the elections.  It is a very good summation of the investment implications of a win for both candidates.  

*I think there is a high probability {greater than 50%} that we may not know for several days/weeks who has won this election.  I think some of these battleground states may be so close that recounts and court challenges are a real possibility.  I've said that markets won't like this uncertainty and in general that is still my belief.  But markets may be assuaged from tanking if we have a high probability of knowing who's ahead by some time tomorrow even if recounts occur.

*Finally it is my baseline projection that President Obama will be narrowly reelected. Keep in mind that even election professionals don't have a real handle on how today will play out.  However, the feel of everything since the weekend suggests another possibility, that undecideds have broken decisively for one of the candidates.  If that is the case than the feel is that the election has broken for Gov. Romney.  No numbers suggest this.  It is simply a gut call.  We'll have a better idea by this time tomorrow.

NOW GO VOTE!  Especially you young people!  Our process of electing everybody from presidents to dog catcher is often messy and mean.  This election cycle has perhaps hit new lows in the modern era for how far down in the mud candidates and their parties are willing to wallow in order to win.  But the ability to elect your leaders is one of the greatest gifts handed down to us by the founding fathers in our Constitution.  Regardless of your take on all of this, go pull a lever today.  Remember, a lot of brave men and women have died defending your basic right to do this simple act.  Go vote for their sake if nothing else.

God Bless America!