I Went Back To Ohio

Ohio Presidential Election Map By County 2008

{Red=Counties carried by Sen. McCain}

{Blue=President Obama}

I grew up on the Indiana/Ohio border and went to law school in Toledo, Ohio.  My mother still lives in the home where I grew up {that's the x on the map shown above} and I have a lot of friends that live in Ohio.  While I don't pretend to be an expert on everything that makes Ohio tick I know something about how they vote.  Assuming that Ohio is going to be THE pivotal state in this election then these are the trends that I'd look for tonight to get some idea of who's going to win.  Obama won Ohio in 2008 by about 207,000 votes and won 51.2% of the popular vote to John McCain's 47.2%*. No Republican has won the Presidency without winning Ohio.

1.  Montgomery County.  Basically the Dayton area.  Obama carried this county by 18 thousand votes. Look to see if his margin of victory is the same or larger.  A lower win here is a positive for Romney.  

2.  Hamilton County.  {Cincinnati}  Long a traditional Republican stronghold.  Obama won here by 6% points in 2008.  If this county doesn't swing back towards the Romney, the Republicans will likely face a long night in the Buckeye State.

3.  Industrial Counties of Northern Ohio.  Counties along Lake Erie.  {Toledo, Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown}.  Heart of Ohio's rust belt.  Strong connections to the auto industry and thus long ties to organized labor.  By my calculation, Obama carried this region by about 440,000 votes in 2008 and provided nearly all of his margin of victory in the state.  Romney has virtually no chance in this region but a lower turnout could help his cause as could increased Republican/independent enthusiasm for his candidacy.  In my opinion the President is in trouble in Ohio if he comes out of this region with less than a 300-350,000 vote lead.    He's really in trouble if he has a lead of less than 200,000 votes.  If the subtle issue of race is going to make a difference it could be in some of these white blue collar cities and towns.  

4.  Athens County {Home to Ohio University}  Obama won here with 66% of the vote and a 10,000 vote cushion.  In an year where every vote counts a couple of percentage points or 2-3,000 votes could be important.

5.  Franklin County {Columbus & Ohio State University}.  Obama won 59% of the vote here or nearly 100,000 votes, his 2nd highest margin of victory in the state after Cuyahoga County {Cleveland}.  This is about 6 percentage points better or nearly 50,000 votes better than John Kerry  who won here in 2004 and about 8 percentage points better or  nearly 100,000 votes better than Al Gore who won this county in 2000.  The GOP ought to be able to make some inroads here as this is a more conservative region of the state.  Romney could potentially pick up 30-50,000 votes here.  If he does not then I think it will be hard for him to carry the state.

6.  Eastern Ohio.  Not a lot of votes here.  Area has been trending Republican as has neighboring West Virginia and western Pennsylvania.  Romney could pick up a few thousand votes here.

7.  The rest of the state or all that real estate in Red.  At its heart most of Ohio beyond the northern tier is a conservative state.  The southeast is similar in terms of real estate, ancestry, and industry to Kentucky, West Virginia and western Pennsylvania.  The western part of the state is farm country and is similar in make-up to Indiana next door.  Obama will not win these counties.  Republicans will need to squeeze every vote possible from these places in order to cut into the lead that the northern part of the state gives the President.  If Romney isn't winning in these places on average in the upper 50-low 60% range then he will be unable to win the state.  If the subtle issue of Gov. Romney's religion is going to have any effect it will be down here in the Southern tier.

And there you have your guide to Ohio.  It might not matter.  Late polls seem to be giving the President a slight edge in Virginia or Romney may actually squeak by in Pennsylvania.  But all indications seem to show that Ohio is important especially to the Republicans.  We'll have to just wait and see.

*Source  New York Times 2008 interactive election results by county.