Thursday, March 25, 2010

Bloomberg Poll.

Excerpt from a Bloomberg national Poll.  I'm not surprised that a majority say they missed the stock market's advance as the public by and large is often wrong regarding big picture events with equities {Witness their stampede out of the markets at exactly the wrong time in March 2003 and again in March 2009}.  I'm also not surprised that the average Joe wants to stick it to the wealthy! 

Highlights mine!

Americans Say They Missed 73% Rise in S&P 500 as Economy Surged

By Mike Dorning

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Americans are down on the economy and the markets even as stocks and growth indicators are up. By an almost 2-to-1 margin Americans believe the economy has worsened rather than improved during the past year, according to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted March 19-22. Among those who own stocks, bonds or mutual funds, only three of 10 people say the value of their portfolio has risen since a year ago.

During that period, a bull market has driven up the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index more than 73 percent since its low on March 9, 2009. The economy grew at a 5.9 percent annual pace during last year’s fourth quarter.

“It’s very difficult to turn perceptions around once you’ve been through the proverbial economic wringer,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com. “Everything is colored by the fact that unemployment is near 10 percent. It doesn’t really matter what you ask, you’re going to get the same answer.” .....Even among investors with annual incomes exceeding $100,000, and who might be expected to follow their financial holdings’ performance, more say they have lost money compared with a year ago than say they have made money.

J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based company that conducted the survey, says the disconnect is typical of the way Americans think about the economy. “Economists look at their indicators and the American people see indicators in their everyday life,” she says. “It is hard to argue with what people observe in their own communities.”

The poll also finds that Americans remain skeptical about the health-care overhaul even after the U.S. House passed the legislation March 21, with fewer than 40 percent of respondents saying they favor the plan. While most say the government should play a role in ensuring everyone has access to affordable care, a majority say health care is a private matter and consider the new rules approved by Congress to be a government takeover.

.....Barely one-in-three Americans say the country is on the right track. Fewer than one in 10 say they believe the economy will be strong again within a year. Just 4 percent of Americans who cut back on spending during the recession now say they are confident enough to open their wallets, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points......

....The Obama Administration has made no progress over the past three months convincing the public that the $787 billion stimulus package passed last year either helped the economy or prevented greater deterioration. Only 37 percent of the public say they see positive effects, the same portion who said so in a December poll......

....Half of Americans say they believe the economy or unemployment is the most important issue facing the country. Health care was cited by 22 percent, followed by 20 percent who cite the federal deficit and government spending. Just 5 percent say the war in Afghanistan. Unemployment in February was 9.7 percent. Payrolls in the U.S. have dropped every month except one since December 2007. Economists expect job growth to turn around in March, with a median forecast that payrolls will rise by 192,000.

Poll respondents rate persistently high unemployment the greatest threat to the economy over the next two years, with 75 percent calling it a high threat. Chronically high budget deficits are cited as a high threat by 70 percent, followed by homeowners who can’t pay their mortgages, which is cited by 58 percent. Higher taxes are deemed a high threat by 57 percent.

Nine of 10 Americans believe that cutting the deficit, which is projected to reach a record $1.5 trillion this year, will require sacrifices from middle-class Americans. Still, when asked about a range of potential tax increases and spending cuts to address the problem, the large majorities of Americans favor tax increases that only affect the wealthy.

More than three of four Americans say deficit-cutters should consider removing the cap on earnings covered by the Social Security tax, currently set at just under $107,000. More than two-thirds say repealing the tax cuts for wealthy Americans enacted by President George W. Bush should be considered.

Smaller majorities favor considering three other options: a reduction in annual cost of living increases for Social Security recipients, which 52 percent say should be considered; cuts in spending on public works, which 54 percent say should be considered; and a penny-an-ounce tax on sugar-sweetened drinks amounting to 12 cents on a 12-ounce can of soda, which 57 percent say should be considered.

Majorities say other options shouldn’t even be on the table. Among them are higher out-of-pocket payments for Medicare services beyond basic care, an increase in the eligibility age for Medicare, a 2 percent increase in income-tax rates on middle-class Americans, and elimination of the home-mortgage interest deduction.


*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.