an tSionna: September 1.

We don't yet know if we are going to have the Fall correction that everybody seems to be looking for. We also don't know if it will be a correction of time or price. What we do know is that the market remains overbought and are primary indicators are declining {see the bottom part of the chart above}. This keeps us in the cautious mode that we've recently described.

What we do know is that there are pretty well defined levels of support in the market's structure at this time. What we've done above is calculated the distance from the most recent high on August 28th to those levels of support and shown what percent the markets could lose at each of these levels. Those are the numbers listed to the side in the top of the chart. We of course have no way of knowing what will happen. Probability suggests at least a test of that 4% number at some point soon. We'll stay cautious for now based on our reading of our indicators and keep the same gameplan in place that we've recently outlined.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 5o0 in client accounts.