Solas!
The on going thoughts & musings (sometimes random, sometimes not) of Lumen Capital Management,LLC.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
From Chart Of The Day:
{I} t was reported {late last week} that the median price of a single-family home dropped 2.3% in August. The stock market sold off on the news. For some perspective into the all-important US real estate market, today's chart illustrates the US median price of a single-family home over the past 39 years. Not only did housing prices increase at a rapid rate from 1991 to 2005, the rate at which housing prices increased – increased. That brings us to today's chart which illustrates how housing prices are currently 30% off their 2005 peak. In fact, a home buyer who bought the median priced single-family home at the 1979 peak has seen that home appreciate by a mere 4%. Not an impressive performance considering that three decades have passed. Over the past two months, single-family home prices have resumed their decline and remain (until proven otherwise) in an accelerated downtrend.
Ultimately I think this is bullish because this decline is making a home more affordable for more people. I've noticed a lot more young people around my town lately and that is presumably due to the fact that a home is now more affordable for them. However, it is still a drag on the current economy & is likely to be so until probably some time late next year.
*I am long certain homebuilder ETFs for certain client accounts.
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