an tSionna: Market Structure-Monthly Distribution

This chart shows the S&P 500 trading structure via months traded within a certain range. Here are the numbers since I think they are hard to read on the chart.

Months S&P has spent trading below 800 for a significant amount of that month's time = 2. {Note both of these were within the last year}.

Months S&P has spent trading between 800-950 = 27. This are distributed more evenly in 3 distinct periods across this monthly chart. We have been trading in this range for most of the last year.

Months S&P has spent trading between 950-1115 = 24. We are currently trading within this range.

Months S&P has spent trading between 1115-1300 = 54. The majority of months since the Gulf War in 2003 have been within this range.

Months S&P has spent trading between 1300-1540 = 44. Almost evenly split between two periods: 1999-2001 & 2006-08. Both in retrospect were seen as periods of highly speculative stock market activity that eventually led to significant declines. Each was associated with a speculative bubble. (1st period: technology, small cap stocks; 2nd period: housing/real estate, financial paper speculation.)

Months S&P has spent trading above 1540 = 1.

From a long term market structure perspective the market has spent the majority of its time since 1998 trading within a range of 950-1300.

In retrospect, the historical period since 1997 when the market has traded below that range (ie below 950) then it has historically led to very good risk/reward scenarios.

In retrospect historical periods where the market has traded above that range (ie above 1300) have historically led to very poor risk/reward scenarios.

Note: For definitional purposes some months have been double counted. Also note that there is nothing to suggest nor should this be construed as a guarantee or prediction of any future stock market behavior.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500