Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Unemployment

From Chart of the Day. Here is a link to their site. {Subscription required.} http://www.chartoftheday.com/
{On Friday}, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate actually decreased from 9.5% to 9.4% during July. This is the first decrease in the unemployment rate since April 2008. For some perspective on the current state of the labor market, today's chart illustrates the unemployment rate since 1948. Today's chart illustrates that despite this month's encouraging decline, there was only one general period in the post-World War II era during which the unemployment rate was higher than the current rate of 9.4% (i.e. June 1982 - June 1983). It is worth noting, however, that a one-month decline in the unemployment rate (even a small decline) after a significant spike (i.e. the unemployment rate spikes by 1.5 percentage points or more) has tended to occur slightly after a recession had ended.

My thoughts: Chart shows in pretty stark reality how tough this period has been. Remember that employment is a lagging indicator so the economy is going to turn likely as unemployment numbers continue to increase.