Economic Recovery

BCA Research sees hope in some of the latest statistics that we may be in the first stages of an economic recovery.

The U.S. economy is transitioning to a recovery path, though it will be bumpy and subdued compared with past cycles.The ISM for the non-manufacturing sector reinforced that the economy is stabilizing following the "sudden stop" that occurred in the fourth quarter of last year. The new orders index rose to a post-Lehman high and is probing expansionary territory, indicating companies are regaining some confidence in final demand. This is corroborated by the continuing rise in the employment component, which shows that businesses are slowing the pace of job cuts, despite June's disappointing payroll figures. The ISM surveys signal that the economy is on the cusp of a recovery. Investor conviction, however, will only come with evidence that the U.S. consumer is beginning to spend a bit more freely, which we expect to see over the next several months.

Source: BCA Research 13:33:00, July 08, 2009 U.S. Economy: It Looks Like A Recovery.

Link:http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20090708.GIF