Why China Needs US Debt: Part Two

Stratfor Geopolitical Diary: Why China Needs U.S. Debt: Part Two.
February 13, 2009 0252 GMT

U.S. Treasuries remain the primary vehicle for investing surpluses, and for Chinese surpluses in particular Chinese. The reasons are many. For one thing, few other countries have debt markets large enough to support the level of investment China needs to make. The U.S. debt market is larger than the three next largest combined. In fact, only Japan has a debt market larger than that of the United States — but because Japan's debt represents some 170 percent of its GDP, it has a credit rating no better than that of the better-run states in sub-Saharan Africa. The U.S. Treasury debt market, while large, represents only about half of U.S. GDP — a much more manageable fraction.
Of the top ten largest debt markets, the four that are in the eurozone — Germany, France, Italy and Spain — could provide viable alternatives for China. But these also pose problems. Much like Middle Eastern oil states, China not only receives most of its income in dollars, but also effectively pegs its own currency on the dollar. This means that for the Chinese, savings and investments held in dollar-denominated assets are relatively safe, stable and accessible. From Beijing's perspective, it makes little sense to convert surplus dollars into euros, only to grow more exposed to currency fluctuations. (And even that assumes that one trusts the financial governance of other states – for example, Italy.)
If Beijing does not view euro-based debt as a viable alternative to the United States because of currency stability, it has even less confidence in other Top Ten debt markets, which are denominated in even less stable currencies. The markets for the Brazilian real, the South Korean won, and even the Canadian dollar and British pound are simply too small, fractured and volatile to provide the level of safety that the U.S. dollar does. And in any case, all of these markets are much too small to absorb Chinese trade surpluses month after month. Only the regular issuance of multibillion-dollar debt tranches by the United States, fueled by U.S. budget and trade deficits, can suffice.
If government paper cannot fill its needs, China could turn to commodities — if anything, perhaps gold could provide a viable store of value without subjecting China to the fiscal swashbuckling of a foreign government. But even here, the size of the gold market could not support Beijing's investment needs. Even if China were somehow able to absorb the total annual output of the world's gold mines — roughly 80 million troy ounces — doing so would both collapse global debt markets and send gold prices to stratospheric heights. (Not exactly a welcome scenario for a country utterly dependent upon international trade.) And for all that, China could sock away the same amount of value after only about three months of trading with the United States.
Ultimately, steering funds clear of American debt markets is not desirable — or even possible — for the Chinese. Luo, the CBRC official (who is known for his colloquial style), stated Beijing's viewpoint about as plainly as it can be put during his speech in New York, saying: "We hate you guys, but there is nothing much we can do."