Why China Needs US Debt: Part One
A follow up to a brief piece we posted on China last week. This is a longer piece published by Stratfor last week. I have put part one here and will publish part two tomorrow.
Weekend Reading Geopolitical Diary: Why China Needs U.S. Debt
Stratfor Geopolitical Analysis
February 13, 2009 0252 GMT
China does not see any choice but to keep buying U.S. government debt, Luo Ping, a director-general at the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), told a New York risk-managers conference on Thursday. The Financial Times quoted him as saying: "Except for U.S. Treasuries, what can you hold? Gold? You don't hold Japanese government bonds or U.K. bonds. U.S. Treasuries are the safe-haven. For everyone, including China, it is the only option." Even if the dollar depreciates because of Washington's financial bailouts, he added, China has no other options.
Luo is acknowledging something of an open secret. Despite occasional hints (or threats) that China might attempt to bankrupt the United States by suddenly selling all of the U.S. debt it holds, that really is not an option. China would be economically destroyed in the process, unless there was some alternative place for Beijing to invest. For a number of reasons, there is none.
Over the past two decades, the United States and China have developed a special relationship based on the safety of U.S. debt. In essence, the United States gives China access to the wealthiest consumer market in the world, which in turn soaks up China's massive output of consumer goods. This not only provides income for Chinese exporters, but also helps ensure social stability in China by providing employment — which is Beijing's primary economic policy goal. China in turn invests its large trade surpluses, earned in U.S. dollars, into U.S. Treasury debt (e.g., 30-year bonds or 10-year notes). This allows China to store its earnings in one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, without needing to convert between currencies. Meanwhile, the recycling of surpluses into Treasury instruments helps to bankroll continued U.S. spending. It is vendor financing on a global scale.
This relationship has fueled unprecedented booms in both U.S. consumer spending and Chinese industrialization. Even in the midst of recession, China continues to sock away savings — but now, because of the financial crisis, questions are being raised as to whether U.S. Treasury debt is the best vehicle for storing those funds.
Simply put, it costs a lot to buttress a collapsing financial market. As the cost of U.S. financial bailouts piles up, Washington's balance sheet is deteriorating. Since the credit crisis began in the fourth quarter of 2007, bailouts have put U.S. government commitments at nearly $9 trillion. To be sure, this is more akin to a line of credit than a tally of real spending — though the actual federal outlays to date, around $3 trillion, represent roughly 20 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). At any rate, the stakes are high and investors are nervous.
China is the largest holder of U.S. government debt, so it is no wonder that Yu Yongding, the head of China's World Economics and Politics Institute and a former adviser to the central bank, on Wednesday said that because of its "reckless policies" the United States should "make the Chinese feel confident that the value of the assets at least will not be eroded in a significant way." His remarks were meant to impress upon Washington that, as the primary financier of U.S. debt, China holds considerable power in the relationship.
In general, as a country's balance sheet comes under increasing strain, investors tend to sell that country's assets and move their funds to places with more attractive fundamentals (such as a trade or budget surplus). But the notion that U.S. debt is becoming a questionable asset and is about to be dumped by investors has not proved true. Instead, money from all over the world has been flooding into American markets, sending the dollar to its highest levels — and bond yields to their lowest — in years.
February 13, 2009 0252 GMT
China does not see any choice but to keep buying U.S. government debt, Luo Ping, a director-general at the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), told a New York risk-managers conference on Thursday. The Financial Times quoted him as saying: "Except for U.S. Treasuries, what can you hold? Gold? You don't hold Japanese government bonds or U.K. bonds. U.S. Treasuries are the safe-haven. For everyone, including China, it is the only option." Even if the dollar depreciates because of Washington's financial bailouts, he added, China has no other options.
Luo is acknowledging something of an open secret. Despite occasional hints (or threats) that China might attempt to bankrupt the United States by suddenly selling all of the U.S. debt it holds, that really is not an option. China would be economically destroyed in the process, unless there was some alternative place for Beijing to invest. For a number of reasons, there is none.
Over the past two decades, the United States and China have developed a special relationship based on the safety of U.S. debt. In essence, the United States gives China access to the wealthiest consumer market in the world, which in turn soaks up China's massive output of consumer goods. This not only provides income for Chinese exporters, but also helps ensure social stability in China by providing employment — which is Beijing's primary economic policy goal. China in turn invests its large trade surpluses, earned in U.S. dollars, into U.S. Treasury debt (e.g., 30-year bonds or 10-year notes). This allows China to store its earnings in one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, without needing to convert between currencies. Meanwhile, the recycling of surpluses into Treasury instruments helps to bankroll continued U.S. spending. It is vendor financing on a global scale.
This relationship has fueled unprecedented booms in both U.S. consumer spending and Chinese industrialization. Even in the midst of recession, China continues to sock away savings — but now, because of the financial crisis, questions are being raised as to whether U.S. Treasury debt is the best vehicle for storing those funds.
Simply put, it costs a lot to buttress a collapsing financial market. As the cost of U.S. financial bailouts piles up, Washington's balance sheet is deteriorating. Since the credit crisis began in the fourth quarter of 2007, bailouts have put U.S. government commitments at nearly $9 trillion. To be sure, this is more akin to a line of credit than a tally of real spending — though the actual federal outlays to date, around $3 trillion, represent roughly 20 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). At any rate, the stakes are high and investors are nervous.
China is the largest holder of U.S. government debt, so it is no wonder that Yu Yongding, the head of China's World Economics and Politics Institute and a former adviser to the central bank, on Wednesday said that because of its "reckless policies" the United States should "make the Chinese feel confident that the value of the assets at least will not be eroded in a significant way." His remarks were meant to impress upon Washington that, as the primary financier of U.S. debt, China holds considerable power in the relationship.
In general, as a country's balance sheet comes under increasing strain, investors tend to sell that country's assets and move their funds to places with more attractive fundamentals (such as a trade or budget surplus). But the notion that U.S. debt is becoming a questionable asset and is about to be dumped by investors has not proved true. Instead, money from all over the world has been flooding into American markets, sending the dollar to its highest levels — and bond yields to their lowest — in years.
Tomorrow: Part Two
posted by CR English at 6:38 AM
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