Friday, March 03, 2006

Magazine Cover Curse?

"Sell when Business Week's cover says buy" is an old Wall Street maxim. Magazines are notorious for latching onto and publicizing trends, fads or investment concepts just before they end. The most famous example of this is a Business Week cover published in August of 1979 entitled "The Death of Equities". You can see a copy of it and the subsequent stock market chart here: http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/001161.html. Here are some other examples of business covers getting it wrong:
http://weblog.blogads.com/comments/1030_0_1_0_C/

Add to this all those magazines that have run glowing articles on real estate in the last six months just as the boom in property seems to at least be slowing down.

With that in mind I give you the most recent cover of Newsweek:




Next let's take a look at the chart of the India Fund {IFN}* a closed end mutual fund that trades at the New York Stock Exchange which is up over 100% since April, 2005.


India is not exactly an undiscovered story at this point and it is likely that the easy money has been made by now although concepts like this can also have legs.

The mutual fund data showed inflows again this week with much of that money going overseas.

Makes you say hmmmmmmm.

Something to watch in the coming months.

*Certain clients of Lumen Capital Management, are currently long the India Fund. We consider this a very aggressive investment & therefore not suitable for all investment accounts. Please note that positions may change at any time and this by no means should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell this security.