Thoughts {02.08.19}

A few things that I'm thinking about on a cold and blustery Friday in Chicago.

The market has taken a bit of a pause the last few days.  This shouldn't be that unexpected.  Stocks have seen a substantial run since their Christmas Eve lows.  The average index at it's peak was up something like 16% from its lows.  That kind of parabolic move higher at some point was gong to be sold and it's looking like that point is now.  Too soon to say how deep this will be but probability suggests we'll at least have to work off the short-term over bought condition we currently find ourselves in.

Stocks seem to still rise and fall based on the market's perception on whether we'll ever see a deal with the Chinese.  

In Chicago there is a term amongst politicians known as "wearing the jacket".  It means that whoever "wheres the jacket" takes the blame for whatever political heat some crisis or event has brought forward.  So for example the Mayor here might say to his Streets and Sanitation Department head when potholes aren't being filled to get the led out on that or he'll be wearing the jacket when the complaints come in and not the mayor.  In that vein while I know the talk is going to increasingly be on whether or not we'll see another government shutdown. I don't think Republicans will want to go through the pain of having to be blamed for that again.  They aren't going to want to wear the jacket a 2nd time this year.  I don't know why Republicans constantly think shutting down the government is a good idea.  They always cave and it always comes back to haunt them.  

Bully for Jeff Bezos to take on the National Enquirer.

I will be out next week and therefor posting will be light.  Back after a bit of time to recharge the batteries.