Thoughts {09.06.18}

We live in strange times when the New York Times is willing to publish an anonymous editorial reputed to be from a high ranking Administration official detailing the resistance inside the Administration to the President.  I highly suggest you go read over at The Atlantic this morning "There's No Coup Against Trump" for some interesting thoughts on that development.

If you wonder why stocks haven't reacted more negatively to all this it has to do largely that the economy is humming along and earnings continue to be stellar.  I also think investors are beginning to look beyond a Trump Presidency at this point.  The thinking here as I've outlined before is that even if Trump isn't impeached he will likely have less legislative room if the Democrats take back either the House or Senate or perhaps both after the November elections.

Speaking of those elections, evidence seems to be mounting of a strong Democratic wave this fall.  That may be the outcome but remember it is people who go to the polls and people outside of the Washington to Boston corridor get to vote as well.  Trump's base still loves him and they also get to walk into the polling station and pull the lever.  Generic polls favoring one party over the other mean nothing.  You can get a million more people in major cities in this country to vote this year but if these are in heavily Democratic districts it won't change how a tight race in Indiana or Missouri might be decided.  By this time in 2016 the press was telling us that Hillary Clinton would be the next President.  They were wrong then so don't exclude the possibility they could be wrong again.

Back early next week.