Thoughts {03.27.18}

Yesterday's sharp rally was a counter trend move Friday massive decline.  Most market indices  are now flat to a bit lower for 2018.  Most are lower for March.  The uptick in volatility does not seem to want to go away.  US markets are going to open higher today as well.  We'll have to see if today's rally holds.  There is a higher probability that traders might sell into the gains during the day.

I think yesterday's rally had much to do with there being little substantive in the interview that Stormy Daniels gave on 60 Minutes Sunday night about her affair with the President.  There was little that was revelatory or new in what she said about an event that took place over ten years ago when the President was a private citizen.  If I was advising Mr. Trump I'd have him acknowledge that the affair took place and then move on.  But nobody in the White House is asking me so I'll move onto a different topic as well.

The rally was also fueled by less Hawkish chatter out of the Administration on trade over the weekend and the fact that we were very oversold going into yesterday's open.  Markets are entering a zone of potential resistance now and it will be interesting to see if they can eat through that and possibly move back towards 2018's highs or if that's a ceiling that's not going to be breached for awhile.  I still think the higher probability is that we chop around now until the fall.

Oh and I think it's time to mention that I will be moving both my house and office early in May.  Posting is going to be a bit lighter as we head into that period although I'll try to chronicle my move from an investment perspective as it happens.  

Back Thursday.