Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Has something changed?

Here is a chart of the S&P 500's ETF, SPY.  The chart is from and you can double-click on it to make it larger if you would like a larger view.   Stocks were routed yesterday along a broad front.  Almost nothing escaped the decline.  I could show you many ETF charts that look exactly like this.  Going back to the SPY we find a decline yesterday of over 1%. It has been 109 days since we've last seen a decline that large.  That's a lot of days folks and is a rare event for a streak that long in the markets.  

The other thing that really stands out for me is that we had a significant violation of the trend line shown in gold above as a diagonal line on the chart.  We are down about 3% from those highs back at the beginning of the month.  Probability suggests that if we are seeing some sort of a correction then the 1st level of support is the area I highlighted above on the chart.  That would be around another 2% decline if it occurs and would take us back to the support zone we broke out of at the beginning of the year.  That would be about a 5% decline should it occur.  That's not even an average decline and technically doesn't even count as a correction.  

I want to see how we trade today but I think we have to consider the possibility that something may be changing in the market's current narrative.  At this point I think a more serious decline is not the highest probability outcome but a period where the market digests gains could be in the cards.  Let's see how this plays out in the coming days and revisit this subject at a later date.  For now this is something to put front and center on the monitor.

*Long ETFs related to SPY in client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time without notice or dissemination on any other form of electronic media.