The Long View: Millennials and Your Social Security.

This is a repeat of an article I wrote over a year ago.  I decided to repost it as it is one of our central tenants that the generation between the current ages of 18-35 will profoundly impact this nation in a manner similar to the Baby Boomers.  

From May 21, 2015.  {Repeated with a few updates and grammatical corrections.}

"10,000 Baby Boomers Retire Each Day!  You can easily find headlines like this.   The Washington Post found out when they looked into the analysis behind those numbers, that the numbers are basically true.   From there it's pretty easy to extrapolate something like 76 million Baby Boomers collecting social security for 30 years and figure out that the program and other programs like medicare will run out of money. 

I say to that bunk.  Probably 95% of the sites on the web and the same amount of TV or radio adds you see or hear that points out a picture of looming bankruptcy for these programs has an agenda, usually to sell you something.  Before blindly taking these numbers as faith stop to consider the facts behind the headlines.  

First it is true that these programs have some short term demographic problems owing to the size of the "Boomer" cohort that is beginning to receive benefits.  However, these problems are more short term in nature and can likely be fixed {raise taxes, borrow, means test benefits, etc}.  The reason is the "Millennial Generation"- younger folks that in 2015 are between 18 and 35 years of age.  This cohort is beginning to enter the workplace.  I know because I have three  children of this generation.  One's already working and the other is {now teaching} special education.   There's also over 75 million of these "Millennials" which currently makes them larger than the Baby Boomers-who up till now were the largest demographic cohort in {this} country. 

Studies performed by the Pew Research Center and others show that the "Millennial Generation" is on the verge of becoming a major demographic force.  They're a cohort that folks ignore at their peril.  Perhaps I'm more in tune with this group owing to the nature of my own kids, but they're going to have an impact on the economy in the coming years and by their force will [likely change} investing.  They are becoming a major theme of ours and one you can expect to hear more about in the coming months.  

Now back to their impact on social programs for senior citizens.  The majority of Millennials are just now entering their family building stages.  Assuming they simply reproduce themselves there will be between 75-150 million of them 20 to 30 years down the pike.  You have to add into that mix the 55 million "Gen. Xers" that are ahead of them and whatever percentage of the 61 million group dubbed by Pew as the Post-Millennial generation thats already in nursery school and there's probably enough there to finance the "Boomers" retirement needs.  Also factor in that a certain amount of Seniors also leave this "mortal coil" each day and stop receiving benefits.  

Remember that the next time somebody tells you that you're not going to receive your social security. 

Update:  Regarding Millennials and investing read this over at BusinessInsider.com.  "Wall Street is Waking up to a $35.3 Trillion Opportunity."

Source:  Pew Research Center:  "This Year, Millennials Will Overtake Baby Boomers."