Push Back

I don't allow comments on this blog.  Never have and probably never will.  The main reason is that I write solely for my clients and friends of the firm.  I write for people who want to know what I think about the investment matrix.  I'm not here to be a platform for other folk's agendas.  Never-the-less if folks want to find me they can and all I can say is "wow"!  My column on my belief that Mrs. Clinton will be the next President has probably the most push back to anything I've ever written.  Several people wanted to engage in some sort of political dust-up over this.  I was amazed at that but this isn't the first time I've experienced this sort of thing this year.  Not to long ago I was at a party where I was asked by a woman who I thought was going to be  the next President.  I said {for many of the same reasons that I listed here on Friday} that probability suggests Mrs. Clinton will win.  This was pleasing to her but then she spent the next ten minutes trying to goad me into a political fight regarding feminism, white privilege etc.  I'm sure I disappointed her because I wasn't going to go there.

Like everybody else I have opinions on matters political and the like.  I do not express them here because I don't believe they add to the investment process.  My clients pay me for my investment ideas not my political ones.  Never-the-less there are times when politics and investments intersect.  Presidential elections are one of these times.  Like many Americans I am very disappointed with the discourse of the present campaign and I'm not overly fond of any of the candidates left standing.  Regardless of what I think though somebody will replace President Obama next January and it's therefore useful to try and game out the system in order to get some idea of who that person will be.  

When talking about things like this, particularly when giving out news that some folks might not like, I start out by saying something to the effect that if I have a pen in my hand and let it go it is going to fall to the ground.  I might prefer if I let that pen go that it floats right next to my arm at the ready for me to reach out and grab it for use.  Reality, however, tells us that in its natural state nothing repeals the law of gravity.  Reality may not be what people want to hear but it is what it is.

Since we cannot know the future we must deal in probabilities as this sort of analysis gives us the best opportunity to perhaps discern what reality will look like at some future time.  When I say that there is an extremely high probability that Mrs. Clinton will become President, I say that without comment on what I think should that occur.  My opinions on this don't matter to the investment process.  Why I care in regards to investments is that Presidents have a huge inpact on the economy and the economy ultimately drives the stock market.

What I care about most right now in the next President is that he or she searches for ways to open up the economic throttle.  If that happens then a lot of our problems become moot and the social issues  that folks seem to enjoy fighting over can then perhaps become a bit less divisive.  In that regard, I don't have to like the next President and I don't care if it's its a he or a she.  Heck, if the next President can develops economic policies that lead to good paying jobs then the next President can be a four armed purple martian as far as I'm concerned.

Back Wednesday.