Market Scenarios {The Big Picture}

Here's the big picture of the S&P 500 going back to the late 1990's.  The section boxed in in blue is what you see referenced in our scenarios.  

1.  Note that green line that represents the market tops in early 2000's and note that barrier was finally erased in 2013.  

2.  Also note how far we've come off the lows in 2009.  The fact that we're experiencing a period of consolidation is not only normal but is healthy.

3.  Finally we explained back on January 20, 2016, that it seems to us this period of consolidation so far is not too much different than what we experienced in markets during a roughly two year period in 2011 through the market's breakout in 2013.  That period enabled stock fundamentals to catch up to valuations.  Probability suggests that's what we're seeing now.  Note that period is not highlighted on this chart but you can see it by clicking on the link above to our January 20th posting.  

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time.