Thursday, November 12, 2015

Meanwhile In The Things Are Getting Better Department

We've seen some pretty decent economic statistics over the past several weeks that are showing decent employment growth. All charts are from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.


First up above is the Civilian Unemployment Rate which at its current 5% rate is holding at a level that's long been considered close to full employment.  You have to go back to 2006 or 2007 the last time this index was below this level.


Next up above in the docket is Total Non-Farm Payrolls.  Currently there are more people employed than there ever have been since somebody started keeping track of these numbers.  I know all the adages about low skill jobs and part timers etc.  But I also know that more people are working now than have been and some of those part-timers are finally getting full time work.  That's important because people with jobs spend money.  Oh and all this has been happening without much help from governments around the nation hiring people.  

In the chart below you can see that government jobs have leveled off and finally started to slowly move up.  That's important because governments jobs tend to have decent pay and even better benefits.  Again people that have jobs spend money.


Finally below is the 4-week moving average of Initial Jobless Claims.  Now these numbers can be volatile and seasonal but again notice these numbers are at a 40 YEAR LOW.  Thats a 40 year low as the country gears up for huge seasonal hiring as we lurch into the holiday season. 



Now I know that there are a multitude of problems out there and I know these numbers that we've seen in the past few weeks virtually assures us that the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates in December, something stocks don't like.  But it's hard for me to get to negative on that or on the economy when these overall numbers are so good.  Maybe that will change in 2016.  Until it does all the people that grumble about poor economic growth, particularly as it relates to employment, need to show me the hard numbers about why overall it's so bad.  From my perch I'll through out my constant refrain which is things are still getting better.

Posting Monday, Wednesday and Thursday next week.