GDP {And A Postscript}

GDP grew at a 2.3% rate in the 2nd quarter {although that's less than analysts were expecting it seems}.  1st Quarter was also revised up.

"Gross domestic product rose at a 2.3 percent annualized rate, and a revised 0.6 percent advance in the first quarter wiped out a previously reported contraction, Commerce Department data showed Thursday in Washington. The median forecast of 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 2.5 percent gain. Consumer spending grew more than projected, and price increases accelerated.

The economy has moved beyond some of the early 2015 constraints including weather and port delays, while cooling global markets, a strong dollar and insufficient wage gains may continue to limit growth. Fed officials, considering when to begin raising rates this year, concluded on Wednesday that the U.S. is making progress."  {Source Bloomberg.}

We'll chalk this one up in the "Things are Getting Better Department".

Now for the postscript.  I've been going to Rhode Island in the summer now for 32 years, more or less at the same time.  I started going out there with my girlfriend, who became my fiancee back in my college days, who then became my wife when I was in law school and over the course of all those years became the mother of my kids.  Now the kids have flown the coup and we're headed back out there again by ourselves.  One of the things I've noticed over the years is that the market basically does nothing during these summer months or has a negative bias.  I used to express this by saying that I thought stock prices wouldn't be much higher at the beginning of the summer as when I pointed the van west in late August headed home.  That was a reference to the days when the whole family {including the dog} used to drive out and back in our minivan.   It was from noticing this that I did a lot of our original research on market seasonality.  Well I decided to see if my original observation  for the summer months was correct so I ran a scan of the market from 1983 until last year.  I started with the price of the S&P 500 on Memorial Day and used the end of July to reference when we'd usually drive out east.  Finally I   used the end of August for when we returned home as a proxy for our return to the Chicago area.  I ran this from 1983 till last year.  Turns out my original observation was pretty spot on.  From 1983 to last summer the market on average returned -0.72% during the May through August period.  It is up 0.06% in August during those years.  Both numbers are close enough to flat in my book for me to declare victory.  I'll update the results for this year at the end of the summer.  

Speaking of Rhode Island, it's time to recharge the batteries a bit so expect posting to be light the next three weeks.  Next week we'll run our July investment letter to clients in serial form.  

Finally there's this.  Once I had one little boy two little girls .  This is a pic of the one who graduated last spring,  She's  gone from this....

.....to having a classroom of her own and teaching other little girls {and boys}.

She has a couple of proud parents. Good luck Ms. English and God Bless.   Back with some live posts in a few weeks.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts, although these positions can change at any time.