Monday, April 14, 2014

Things Are Getting Better {Retail Sales}


Retail sales picked up in March, beating analyst expectations. We've argued a few times over the past month that having much of the USA east of the Mississippi resemble a remnant of the last ice age was going to put a serious dent into the consumer's willingness to open their checkbooks or pull out the credit cards.  {See here and more specifically here.}  It seems that consumers didn't even wait for the snow to melt.  These numbers are for March.  This is what it still looked like in this parts mid-March:


Note some of these numbers from March: Auto Sales: +3.1% and Retail Sales: +0.7% {The best gain in over a year according to Quartz.}  

Stocks are up early this morning on the news.  A nice snapback to last week's drubbing and as good an excuse as any for a rally in an over sold market.  Clues on whether we'll get some kind of a more sustainable bounce will start to arrive on whether we get a sell later today.  That is will the professional class sell into this rally later in the day like they have for the past week or so?  

Irrespective of what the market does, this just supports my thesis that the consumer was trapped at home most of the winter.  Like the Swallows returning to San Capistrano, the American consumer is returning to the mall or wherever they go these days to buy things!