Thursday, October 10, 2013

Government Shutdown Day 10

From Chart of the Day:  {My highlights in Green}




Last week's chart illustrated how the stock market tends to perform after a government shutdown begins. Today's chart provides further perspective by focusing on how the stock market tends to perform after a government shutdown ends. Today's chart plots the average S&P 500 performance for the 20 trading days (approximately one calendar month) before and 60 trading days (approximately 3 calendar months) after a government shutdown ends. As today's chart illustrates, the stock market has tended to struggle prior to the end of a government shutdown due to the fact that investors fear the unknown. Following this, the stock market has (on average) trended higher over the ensuing three months in what amounts to a relief rally. It should be noted that today's chart is an average performance chart and that following the last 17 shutdowns, the stock market traded up 60 trading days after a shutdown ended on 12 out of 17 occasions (i.e. 70.5%).


*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.