Seasonality In Pictures.

From All Star Charts.com and via some fellow named Alex Tarhini.

"With seasonal studies, you always need to keep in mind the time frame of the data. Like every other market analysis, there are a number of ways to slice the pie. When looking at seasonality through average percent change, which I believe is the simplest form, the data can be annually, monthly, weekly, etc. In this case, we are looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average on a monthly time frame. Another thing not to forget is the fact that seasonality studies need a start and end point. So when you see a monthly seasonal chart that shows June as a major outlier, it might be because the data only goes back until 2008, when the Dow lost 10% that month. It is usually best to look at data from multiple ranges of time so that you can get a better idea of what months are most important. Of course, this is all very simplistic and can (and should) be taken a few steps further (maybe in another post).

With that said, here is a chart of average monthly returns for the $DJIA, using a number of different look-back periods (5,10,15,20,25, and 30 year)."

"As you can see, July is not a terrible month. In fact, all of the average returns are positive. Still, it isn’t a standout bullish month either, as March, April, and December have higher returns."

I'm not sure whether to attribute the comments to either Mr. Tarhini or to Mr. Parets who publishes All Star Charts.com.  I only know that none of the above is my work product so I have linked both.  

Link to post:  All Star Charts.com: Quick Seasonal Check.

*Long ETFs related to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in certain client accounts.