Thursday, July 12, 2012

Earnings So Far


We've noted in the past week or so how estimates for US companies have been coming down in response to both a slowing economy here and abroad.  Now we're beginning to see the meat on the bones of this as the corporate earnings season has started out poorly.  So far at least no matter how much estimates have been trimmed it looks like there is further to go. According to Bespoke Investment Group, "companies that have reported since earnings season began on Monday have disappointed big time.....{So far} just ONE company has beaten estimates of the sixteen that have reported, while TWELVE have missed.  And the price action in response to these earnings has been equally as bad......{T}he average one-day change for these stocks on their report days has been -5.45%."
If one were inclined to try and make a silk purse out of a sow's ear regarding the punk earnings so far this quarter, Bespoke offers this up.  "It should be noted that last earnings season started out extremely positive, with nearly every company beating estimates.  As the season progressed, the beat rate dropped and dropped, and the season ended up being very weak.  The bulls are hoping the opposite occurs this time around."