PreMarks 11.18.11

Futures say stocks should rebound at the open as we've probably come down enough in the short term for at least a bounce.  Seasonality should really begin to assert itself now as we head into Thanksgiving.  The day after turkey day is typically one of the best days of the year for stocks.  Trader Larry Connors has a what I think is a different take on why stocks could rise from here to year end  I've excerpted that below:

"Friday’s movement in the stock market is indicative of what to expect through year-end. Any “partially good news” is going to see large rallies. There’s a major political 5-part reason for this.


1. The year finishing in positive ground is a major victory for the Obama Administration. The spin is so strong that all means available will be used to push prices higher.

2. Should the market close higher for the year, Obama has the ability to deflect (and mis-direct) the message about the economy.

3. You’ll start hearing ...{From the Administration} 'When I came into office your 401k was devastated by the Republicans.......My mission for the next four years is to continue to protect your money (from the evils of Wall Street) by initiating further fairness/growth plans like I’ve done since I’ve taken office'.

4. This message will resonate, especially with the majority that base their decisions on sound bites, simple messages, and class warfare.... This message will bring votes and the Obama re-election people know this.

5. Look at the big one-day rallies this year. Most have occurred on holidays/traditionally low volume days. If you’re going to manipulate prices, those are the days to do it. There will be ample low volume holiday related opportunities to do this again over the next seven weeks.....

Link:  Year End Stock Market Bias