Wednesday, November 30, 2011

More on 4th Quarter Seasonality

The The Big Picture had this statistical comment on market gains in the 4th quarter {October 1-December 31} the other day:

"Surprising data point about Q4 market numbers:  From 1990-2010, the fourth Quarter has produced gains near 5% — that nets a return higher than the cumulative return first, second and third quarters combined (3.5%).  Consider it a variation of Sell in May."