If I Had To Guess....

I don't claim to have any special prognostication powers on where the market might be headed the rest of the year.  What I am able to do is rely on over 20 years of experience and study which gives me some feel as to what I think is likely to occur the rest of the year.  The chart above shows in generalities what I think is likely to happen.  A few things.

1.  This view is probably consensus among those of us who have been in this game a few years.

2.  This is based on what we know today.  An unexpected event could throw this whole exercise down the drain.

3.  Because this is likely consensus there is a very real possibility that this whole scenario could be dead wrong!  Do not go trade or invest based on what you see here!  Remember the consigliere's maxim, "markets will do what they have to do to prove the most amount of people wrong"!

4.  While I think this is the most likely way things will occur it is not the only scenario out there and we will invest based on what we see and facts, not what we think ought to occur.  Translation:  I reserve the right to change my mind where events warrent!

5.  I still think stocks have the potential to experience a total return in 2011 between 8-12%.  Note again the usage of the words "potential to experience " as opposed to "will experience" in the previous sentance! 
*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.