Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Jobs Recovery


From Chart of the Day.

"{Friday}, the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls (jobs) increased by 39,000 in November. Today's chart puts the latest data into perspective by comparing nonfarm payrolls following the the end of the latest economic recession (i.e. the Great Recession -- solid red line) to that of the prior recession (i.e. 2001 recession -- dashed gold line) to that of the average post-recession from 1954-2000 (dashed blue line). As today's chart illustrates, the current jobs recovery is much weaker than the average jobs recovery that follows the end of a recession. Today's chart also illustrates that the current jobs recovery is following a path that is similar although slightly stronger than what occurred following the recession of 2001. Another important point is that over the past 11 months (i.e. since the beginning of 2010) the trend in jobs is up -- slightly."

Comment:  This has a lot to do I'm afraid with the nature of this recession.  I think a lot of these jobs aren't coming back.  They've either been lost overseas, have been eaten away by productivity gains or companies will do without until they are forced to rehire.  I think it is going to be a rough go for the 40-50% of  the work force in the bottom end of the economy.  Note though that I don't think that will necessarily be a drag on economic growth next year.  More  on this later!