Friday, September 24, 2010

Answering a Question

Regarding yesterday's Net Market Negative short term rating, please understand that simply reflects that for strategies that are more aggressive and willing to have shorter term tactical assets shifts we have simply sold more securities this week than we have bought.  Our work shows us that we have reached an over bought reading in the shorter term.  Probability therefore suggests either some sort of pullback soon or at least a period where stocks simply mark time in place.

This may not happen right away or at all.  As I'm writing this futures are indicating tomorrow's open will be higher.  But experience tells us, and probability suggests,  that over bought conditions are worked off either by time {a period where stocks churn back and forth}, or by price decline.  We need to respect that possibility and therefore have raised modest amounts of cash where stated above.
I still think stocks have the potential to be higher by year's end and low cash positions in many client account and strategies reflect that.  However, money flows are reaching levels where they are becoming more problematic short term and we have reacted accordingly..