Tuesday, August 24, 2010

an tSionna {Boxed In}


Chart showing trading range stocks have traced in the last year. 

SPY closed today at 107.13.  Based on 80 of estimated earnings for the underlying index, it trades at roughly 13.50 times this year's estimates and 12 times the numbers we are currently using for year end 2011.

The earnings yield {inverse of the PE} for this year is roughly 7.5%.  These valuations say to me that either we are in fact going to have that double-dip recession that everybody is afraid of right now or stocks are absurdly cheap!

Stay tuned.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.