42 Days!

According to Bespoke Investment Group it has now been 42 days since the S&P 500 has had a pullback (one-day or multi-day) of 1%. Since 1990, there have been 10 other periods where the index went 40 days or more without a 1% pullback. The table {above}highlights these occurrences.

The S&P 500 is up 8.75% over the last 42 days. As shown, the number of days without the 1% pullback ranges from 40 to 70, and the price gain ranges from 4% to 9%. So while there have been longer periods of time without a 1% pullback, the current gain of 8.75% without a 1% decline is at the top end of the range over the last 20 years. Interestingly, once the streaks ended, the decline of 1% or more never got worse than -2.53% before another gain of 1% or more occurred.

Comment:  Everybody uses the 2004 analogy for how the market ought to trade this year.  I'm not sure that's the correct pattern to study but if it is then I notice that two of these occurences happened in that year!

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in personal and client accounts.

Link:  42 Days & Counting