an tSionna 1.15.10

Again a different view of the market.  This is a monthly chart of the S&P 500.  It shows in pretty basic detail our 'Lost Decade" of investing.  I suppose we ought to call it our lost 12 years as stocks for the most part are trading at the same level they were back in 1998!  Currently our rally looks an awful lot like the rally we had back in 2003 off of the Gulf War lows.  This has led many pundits to speculate that stocks could stagnate this year, virtually unchanged by the time we travel to December.  That may happen.  However, there is another side to that story which I will start going over in the next couple of weeks.  One of the things that I note (and will cover in more detail in the coming weeks)  is that our money flow analysis says we Could trade as high as 1300-1350 sometime in 2010.  Like I said, I'll explain why I think that could happen going forward.  I also will note that I'm not saying it will happen so nobody should take this as some sort of guarantee or prediction and casual readers of this blog should do their own work or talk to their own advisors before reacting to what I've just said.

I've been a bit light on the posts since mid-December.  End of the year business errands and a vacation kept me away from doing some of the analysis we try to put forward.  Also we're working on our end of the year letter to clients which will take much of our 2010 analysis into account so expect to see more than pictures and charts as we trudge deeper into January.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in certain client accounts.