Thursday, January 28, 2010

Egg On Face?

So far it looks like most of what I wrote this morning is turning out to be wrong as investors have more time to digest what's occurred since yesterday. A couple of brief thoughts:

1. Plainly markets are still under distribution (liquidity is still being withdrawn). That being said we are now becoming more oversold and the odds of some sort of short term rally increase. While I thought the odds of stocks being higher today were pretty good prior to the open, I also stated that "you have the recipe for some sort of bounce in stock prices over the next several days. While that may not be today I still think some sort of rally is possible during that period.   One of the Boston Boys tells me that most of today's decline has to do with concern on the solvency of Greece and is not so much a response to President Obama's speech last night. 

2. Notwithstanding that statement I am seeing some more technical damage to some of my investment positions that may necessitate us to become a bit more defensive in our investment posture than we currently stand. I said we'd listen to the market for clues on what to do. The clues so far seem to indicate that the character of this market is changing.

3. On a relative basis financial stocks & ETFs seem to be holding up much better than the rest of the market. I find that an interesting development. {Note: I am long certain financial ETFS and certain bank stock preferred stocks in appropriate client accounts.}