Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Decade 2000's Market Data-Part I

The folks over at Direxion Funds have compiled some interesting data on stocks during this decade and I thought we'd spend some time looking at it over the next couple of days.  {Highlights Mine.}


STOCKS BY THE DECADE - With just 3 weeks remaining in the decade (i.e., the 10 years from 1/01/00 to 12/31/09), the S&P is down 9.9% in aggregate for the period on a total return basis. That performance would be the worst decade ever for the stock index, falling below the negative 0.3% performance achieved during the 1930s. The best decade ever for the S&P 500 was the 1950s, a 10-year period when the stock index gained +487.1%. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: BTN Research).


BEST AND WORST YEARS - The best calendar year performance for the S&P 500 during the current decade was 2003 when the stock index gained +28.7% (total return). The worst performance took place last year (2008) as the S&P 500 lost 37.0%. With just 3 weeks remaining in this calendar year, the S&P 500 is up +25.4% YTD, giving the index a chance to still surpass its 2003 performance (source: BTN Research).

RECESSIONS - The US had 2 recessions during the decade. The first downturn lasted 8 months and ended on 11/30/01. The second recession began on 12/31/07 and is officially still ongoing as of today (source: NBER).


Comment:  The underperformance for this decade was virtually guaranteed by the 2000-2003 Bear Market.  That decline put stocks so far behind the eight-ball for the decade that nothing short of a steller period of returns the rest of those years would have enabled the index to catch up.  The crisis of late 2007-2009 sealed this decade's fate.  The 2008 decline virtually equals the worst years return during the Depression years of 1932-1933.


*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client accounts.