Friday, June 05, 2009

an tSionna: Speaking of 200 Day Moving Averages.


Bespoke Investments has taken a look at the 200 day moving average. Here is what they say and have noticed. At 523 calendar days trading below its 200 day moving average, the current streak represents the 2nd longest in the history of the S&P 500 and the longest since the early 1930's when stocks have traded below the trend line.

Since 1928 this is only the 6th time the S&P has gone an entire year below its 200 day. The S&P has typically rallied following prior periods such as this and has posted gains each of the 5 previous times.* One year out the average return is 21.26%. Not saying this will happen again. Just giving you what the historical numbers have said. Now that the S&P is trading above its 200 day notice how it is beginning to act as support.

*Bespoke investments. B.I.G. Tips 6/1/09. Here is the website. Subscription required. Link:
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/
**Long ETFs related to the S&P 500.