an tSionna: So What Did Stocks Return Anyway?

I saw an analyst on TV the other night talk about the fact that stocks had returned a bit over 100% during the last Bull Market. That Bull started either in the summer of 02 or spring of 03. We took a look at this once before here: http://lumencapital.blogspot.com/2008/10/magnitude-of-current-decline.html But this got me to thinking a little more about the nature of the markets 2003-2007 advance. Our interpretation of how it actually played out might be a bit different.

One simple truth we would agree with is that the most explosive moves come after stocks have either left a bear market or after a long period of dormancy. Most of the gains in 2003-2007 came either at the beginning or at the end of the move. So people who were in cash missed most of the money making times.

Anyway, you can click on the chart to further see what we think.

*Long SPY and related ETFs in various client accounts.