an tSionna 11/20/08: Erasure

Today the market erased all of its 2002/3-2007 bull market gains {Pink Line}. I have to guess that we are in the climax phase of this bear market. That is where the selling begets more selling and there are no natural buyers of stock. Certainly it seems by most indicators that stocks are over sold. In many cases we are exceeding fear indicators seen in the 1987 market crash. For example the S&P 500 currently trades almost 40% below its 200 day moving average. The last time it traded this low? Never. I think stocks are as cheap as I've ever seen in all my years. But I also said that two weeks ago. I think that we will look back on this period and think how cheap everything looked back in the nasty fall of 2008. But I also can't say that we don't have another 10% to the downside. We are looking for yield and for ways to invest in major market indices at this time.

One thing that would be great would be to hear something about the economy from the Obama people soon.

PS the blue line is my guestimation of where we could go if these current levels don't hold. About 10-15% further down.