4th Quarter Gains

Above is a quarterly chart of the S*P 500 proxy {SPY-double click on chart for larger image}. Gains in the 4th Quarter since 2001 have averaged a bit over 8%. Last year's anemic rise was the worst of the past 5 years. Furthermore virtually all of the market's return in 2004-2005 came in these last 3 months. Which is why I've said in the past that stocks haven't had good years but they've had great 4th. Quarters.

Even though the market is up around 5% year to date, the October-December time period promises to be what either makes or breaks 2006. Stay tuned.

*Long SPY in various client accounts.