Memorial Day

I recently read a few articles saying that our current "War on Terror /War in Iraq" has lasted longer than our fighting in World War II. For Memorial Day I thought it would be interesting to look at key dates during both events and compare the performances of each market. I only have data in the 1940's for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. {DJIA} I am using the S&P 500 {SPX}for modern data. These are obviously not the same but are comparable because each was seen by the public as the most representative market index at the time. I am also going to use all of World War II's chronology. Our economy was increasingly influenced by the war's events in 19401-41 even though we did enter the fighting until after Pearl Harbor. Therefore World War II percentage returns are from September 1, 1939 which is when Germany invaded Poland. All percentage returns are rounded and dividends are not included.

World War II

Date/---------- Event/------------------------------ DJIA----% Return/------- Comment
09/01/1939--- German Invasion of Poland ---134.40 ------------Mkt. up 15% in next 2 weeks.
06/06/40------ German Invasion of France--- 114.50-- {-15%}--Mkt. drops 25% in 3 weeks.
12/08/41------ Pearl Harbor---------------------- 112.50---{-16% }
05/06/42------ Battle of the Coral Sea--------- - 97.10----{-28%}---Bear Market lows.
06/09/42------ Battle of Midway---------------- 105.10---{-22%}--Nearly 10% Rally from lows.
02/02/43------ Fall of Stalingrad-----------------125.90----{-6%}---30% rally off of May lows.
06/06/44------ Normandy Invasion-------------142.20------- 6%--46% rally off of 1942 lows.
05/08/45------ V-E Day-------------------------- 166.40------ 24% --70% rally off of 1942 lows.
09/02/45------ Formal surrender of Japan----- 173.90------ 30%--80% rally off of 1942 lows.

Note: There is no exact start date for our current fighting. Most use September 11, 2001. Some date the war back to the mid-90's bombings at US military bases in Saudi Arabia. I am using the suicide attack on the USS Cole as the starting point for computing percentage returns of these events. Again all information is rounded and dividends not included.

War on Terror

Date/-------------- Event--------------------------------- SPX------ % Return----- Comment
10/12/2000--- Attack on the USS Cole-----------1,329.78 ---- Al-Qaida sponsored attack.
09/11/01------ New York & Washington DC attacks---- 1,092.54---{-18%}--Prices as of 9/10/01
09/17/01------ Markets Reopen---------------------1,038.77---{-22%}
09/21/01------ Market's low after the attacks------ 965.80---{-27%}
March, 2002--End of major combat in Afghanistan---- 1,165.58---{-12%}-Mkt. rallies 20% off of its lows.
March, 2003- Operations in Iraq------------------- 833.27----{-37%}-Current mkt. cycle low.
04/09/03------ Fall of Baghdad------------------------ 865.99----{-35%}
12/13/03------ Capture of Saddam Hussein---- 1,068.04 ---{-20%}- 28% rally off of 2002 lows.
11/08/04------ 2nd Battle of Fallujah------------- 1,164.89 ---{-13%}-40% rally off of 2002 lows.
01/30/05------ Iraqi Elections---------------------- 1,181.27--- {-11%}

Extra credit: A prize for the 1st e-mail back to lumencapital@hotmail.com who can tell me which state has a holiday celebrating V-J date on the 2nd Monday in August? Hint: All family or employees of Lumen Capital Management are excluded from this contest.